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DetDeterminationTrump 45 · R Quiet signal

Presidential Determination

Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012

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In simple terms

This determination finds that global petroleum supplies from non-Iran sources are sufficient to allow foreign countries to significantly reduce Iranian oil purchases, thereby continuing sanctions pressure on Iran's oil exports. It extends a recurring statutory determination required to maintain U.S. sanctions leverage under the 2012 NDAA.

Federal Register Open PDF 85 FR 36995

Record & deadlines

  1. Signed

    Signed by the President

  2. FR published

    Published in the Federal Register · 85 FR 36995

    Federal Register PDF

  3. Federal Register publication

Key directives

  • Determine sufficient non-Iranian petroleum supply exists to permit significant reduction in Iranian oil purchases
  • Continue monitoring global oil market conditions
  • Publish determination in Federal Register

Who is ordered

What to expect

Immediate

  • Determination takes effect upon signing
  • Sanctions framework against Iranian oil purchases remains operative

Near term (90d)

  • Continued monitoring of global oil market conditions by administration

Long term

  • Ongoing pressure on Iran's oil export revenues
  • Potential future determinations required to maintain sanctions regime

Risks & tensions

  • Document is vague on duration—'consistent with prior determinations' suggests recurring 180-day cycle but does not specify expiration
  • Reliance on April 2020 EIA data may become outdated given volatile energy markets
  • Balancing sanctions enforcement against potential oil price spikes during economic recovery
Presidential Determination: Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012 · Executive Orders