Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012

This determination certifies that global oil markets have sufficient non-Iranian supply to allow countries to significantly reduce Iranian oil purchases, as required by the 2012 NDAA sanctions framework. However, the President notes that due to U.S. commitments under the 2013 Joint Plan of Action (interim Iran nuclear deal), the administration will not seek further reductions in Iranian oil purchases at this time.

Federal Register Open PDF 80 FR 75921

Impact dates

Date TBD
Federal Register publication by Secretary of State

Key directives

Determine sufficient non-Iranian petroleum supply exists per NDAA 2012 Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C)
Maintain existing Iranian oil purchase levels (no further reductions sought) due to Joint Plan of Action commitments
Continue monitoring global oil market situation
Secretary of State to publish determination in Federal Register

Who is ordered

Timeline

Immediate

Determination takes effect upon signing
Secretary of State authorized to publish in Federal Register

Near term (90d)

Continued monitoring of oil market conditions

Long term

Maintenance of existing Iranian oil purchase levels under Joint Plan of Action commitments

Risks & tensions

Tension between sanctions law (NDAA 2012) requiring reduced Iranian oil purchases and diplomatic commitments under Joint Plan of Action
Vague 'continue to monitor' language leaves uncertainty about future policy shifts
Reliance on EIA report from October 6, 2015—data may become outdated