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DetDeterminationObama · D Quiet signal

Presidential Determination

Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012

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In simple terms

President Obama determined that global oil markets had sufficient non-Iranian supply to allow countries to significantly reduce Iranian oil purchases without causing supply disruptions. This continued a sanctions policy required by the 2012 NDAA, maintaining pressure on Iran's nuclear program through petroleum-based financial restrictions.

Federal Register Open PDF 78 FR 35537

Record & deadlines

  1. Signed

    Signed by the President

  2. FR published

    Published in the Federal Register · 78 FR 35537

    Federal Register PDF

  3. Federal Register publication by Secretary of State

Key directives

  • Determine sufficient non-Iranian petroleum supply exists per NDAA FY2012 Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C)
  • Continue monitoring situation to ensure market can accommodate reduced Iranian purchases
  • Secretary of State to publish memorandum in Federal Register

Who is ordered

Prior policy

  • otherdeterminations of March 30, 2012, June 11, 2012, and December 7, 2012

What to expect

Immediate

  • Determination takes effect upon signing; continues existing sanctions framework

Near term (90d)

  • Secretary of State to publish determination in Federal Register
  • Ongoing monitoring of global oil market conditions

Long term

  • Sustained pressure on Iran's petroleum export revenues
  • Potential for continued determinations based on market conditions

Risks & tensions

  • Document cites no specific deadline for Federal Register publication—only 'authorized and directed' without time bound
  • Determination explicitly 'consistent with' three prior 2012 determinations, suggesting routine continuation rather than new policy development
  • Market conditions cited (spare capacity, increased production) are inherently volatile; determination may require revision if supply conditions shift
  • Effectiveness depends on foreign compliance with U.S. secondary sanctions—extraterritorial reach creates diplomatic friction
Presidential Determination: Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012 · Executive Orders