DetDeterminationObama · D Quiet signal

Presidential Determination

Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012

President Obama determined that global oil markets had sufficient non-Iranian supply to allow countries to significantly reduce Iranian oil purchases without causing supply disruptions. This continued a sanctions policy required by the 2012 NDAA, maintaining pressure on Iran's nuclear program through petroleum-based financial restrictions.

Impact dates

  1. Federal Register publication by Secretary of State

Key directives

  • Determine sufficient non-Iranian petroleum supply exists per NDAA FY2012 Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C)
  • Continue monitoring situation to ensure market can accommodate reduced Iranian purchases
  • Secretary of State to publish memorandum in Federal Register

Who is ordered

Timeline

Immediate

  • Determination takes effect upon signing; continues existing sanctions framework

Near term (90d)

  • Secretary of State to publish determination in Federal Register
  • Ongoing monitoring of global oil market conditions

Long term

  • Sustained pressure on Iran's petroleum export revenues
  • Potential for continued determinations based on market conditions

Risks & tensions

  • Document cites no specific deadline for Federal Register publication—only 'authorized and directed' without time bound
  • Determination explicitly 'consistent with' three prior 2012 determinations, suggesting routine continuation rather than new policy development
  • Market conditions cited (spare capacity, increased production) are inherently volatile; determination may require revision if supply conditions shift
  • Effectiveness depends on foreign compliance with U.S. secondary sanctions—extraterritorial reach creates diplomatic friction
Presidential Determination: Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012 · Executive Orders