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DetDeterminationObama · D Quiet signal

Presidential Determination

Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012

This determination finds that global petroleum supplies from non-Iranian sources are sufficient to allow foreign countries to significantly reduce Iranian oil purchases, continuing sanctions-related pressure on Iran's oil exports under the 2012 NDAA. The finding maintains existing policy rather than changing it.

Federal Register Open PDF 79 FR 71619

Impact dates

  1. Federal Register publication

Key directives

  • Secretary of State to publish determination in Federal Register
  • Continued monitoring of petroleum supply conditions

Who is ordered

Timeline

Immediate

  • Determination takes effect upon signing
  • Continued authorization for sanctions on entities purchasing Iranian oil through foreign financial institutions

Near term (90d)

  • Federal Register publication directed
  • Continued monitoring of global oil supply conditions

Long term

  • Sustained pressure on Iranian oil exports
  • Ongoing dependency on global oil market conditions for policy continuation

Risks & tensions

  • Determination explicitly 'consistent with prior determinations'—no policy change
  • Dependent on volatile global oil market conditions (spare capacity, production levels)
  • Sanctions effectiveness hinges on foreign compliance, not just U.S. determination
Presidential Determination: Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 1245(d)(4)(B) and (C) of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012 · Executive Orders