DetDeterminationG.W. Bush · R Quiet signal

Presidential Determination

Eligibility of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan to Receive Defense Articles and Services under the Foreign Assistance Act and the Arms Export Control Act

President Bush determined that providing defense articles and services to Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan would strengthen U.S. security and promote world peace, authorizing the Secretary of State to report this to Congress and publish it in the Federal Register. This determination lifted prior restrictions on military assistance to these three post-Soviet states.

Impact dates

  1. Federal Register filing completed

Key directives

  • Find that furnishing defense articles and services to Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan strengthens U.S. security and promotes world peace
  • Authorize and direct Secretary of State to report determination to Congress
  • Authorize and direct Secretary of State to arrange for Federal Register publication

Who is ordered

Timeline

Immediate

  • Determination effective upon signing April 18, 2002
  • Secretary of State authorized to report to Congress and arrange Federal Register publication

Near term (90d)

  • Federal Register publication completed (filed April 24, 2002)

Long term

  • Ongoing eligibility for defense articles and services under FAA and AECA
  • Potential shift in regional security dynamics in South Caucasus and Central Asia

Risks & tensions

  • Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh creates tension in simultaneously arming both sides
  • Tajikistan's fragile post-civil war governance raises proliferation risks
  • Regional balance implications with Russia, Iran, and Turkey
  • Congressional notification requirement suggests potential legislative pushback avenue
Presidential Determination: Eligibility of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan to Receive Defense Articles and Services under the Foreign Assistance Act and the Arms Export Control Act · Executive Orders